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# Suppose that you are at a casino playing roulette. The strategy you are using is to, before each bet, flip a coin to determine whether to place your bet on red or on black (which, according to the rules of the game, should each have almost a 50% chance of occurring).

Suppose that you are at a casino playing roulette. The strategy you are using is to, before each bet, flip a coin to determine whether to place your bet on red or on black (which, according to the rules of the game, should each have almost a 50% chance of occurring). After you’ve placed each bet, the roulette wheel is then spun. Suppose that you lose 59 times in a row (i.e. for 59 consecutive plays, when you place your beton black the ball then lands on red, and when you place your bet on red the ball then lands on black). From this experience, it is most rational to conclude that:

a) Using a coin toss to determine whether to bet on red or black is in general a very bad strategy for playing roulette

b) The game is somehow rigged against you and the casino or its employees are cheating you

c) You are very likely to win on your next bet if you continue this coin flip based strategy

d) The roulette game is broken, but there is no reason to assume that it was broken intentionally

e) You were merely very unlucky

f) One cannot reasonably conclude which of the above options is more likely